Could Stony Brook Lose By Winning Tomorrow?

It's hard to label another regular season game as more important than Stony Brook's win over Boston University a week ago, but tomorrow's match up with Albany comes close. Unfortunately for the Seawolves, they find themselves in a position where a win over the Danes in upstate New York may end up costing them home court advantage in the playoffs.

Explanation after the jump.

The reason has to do with the America East tiebreaker. If Vermont beats Stony Brook and the two finish tied atop the America East standings, tiebreakers kick in. The first would be the head to head match-up, which if Vermont wins at home vs. the Seawolves, would be tied at 1-1. The second tiebreak is quality wins, and since the tie is atop the standings, that would mean wins over the #3 team.

That's where it gets tricky. Right now, Boston and Albany are tied for third, both with 7-2 [Edit: 7-3] records. Against BU, Stony Brook has a 1-1 record. But Vermont, with their narrow win over BU on Tuesday, swept their season series with the Terriers. So if BU holds on to third, and UVM and Stony Brook are tied, UVM will get the top seed in the conference.

Alternately, if Albany finishes third...well, we have no idea what'll happen just yet. First will be tomorrow's match up with Stony Brook. If Stony Brook wins, they'll have swept the series. The Danes play Vermont in two weeks (Vermont won the first meeting).

But looking ahead, the likelihood that Boston finishes ahead of Albany is pretty high. First of all, BU's schedule is much easier. They've got one game versus Albany (obviously Stony Brook and Vermont will be watching that one closely), and it's in Boston. Besides that, they close out the season with games against the bottom five teams in the conference. Albany, on the other hand, still has Stony Brook tomorrow, Boston on Monday, and a big game vs. Vermont on the 15th.

That puts Stony Brook in an odd position of helping Boston and potentially harming its own chances at the top seed if they beat Albany and knock them down the rankings. Of course, the Seawolves would be rightfully quick to point out that they control their own destiny. Beat Vermont a week from tomorrow and they'll all but coast to another regular season championship. But counting on a win on the road, especially against a very good Catamounts team, is not easy to do. Bottom line: the week starting tomorrow will do a lot to clear up the playoff picture for Stony Brook.