Stony Brook at Vermont: The Game of the Century of the Year

For the second time in three seasons, Stony Brook will face Vermont with the top seed in America East and a guaranteed playoff berth on the line.

While the outcome of tomorrow’s game—tipoff time is at noon in Burlington—won’t technically settle the race for the regular season conference championship, with games at Hartford and at home against Maine to close out the season, Stony Brook will be sitting pretty if they can pull off the road win over the Catamounts.

And that’s no easy task. Vermont has not lost at home in conference play since last season, and they are perhaps the most well-rounded team in America East. Like Stony Brook, Vermont does not rely on a single player to carry their offense. Four McGlynn, Matt Glass and Luke Apfeld can each kill opponents from the floor, and each are averaging double digits in scoring this season. In the first matchup between these two, in the conference opener January 2, it was Apfeld who unloaded 18 points off the bench in a 65-59 loss to the Seawolves.

Of course, Stony Brook has quite a bit in its corner too, not the least of which is the top defense in the conference, and one of the best in the country. For the season, the Seawolves are holding opponents to 58.7 points per game, good for 20^th in the nation. When they’re able to hold opponents to fewer than 60 points, Stony Brook is a perfect 13-0 this season.

More--including Stony Brook's keys to victory and a prediction--after the jump.

But the Seawolves’ last two wins weren’t pretty. A 57-48 W over New Hampshire on February 6 was the fewest points Stony Brook had scored in a game since their only conference loss this season against Boston. And at home against UMBC, a team that Stony Brook beat on the road by FORTY earlier in the year, the Seawolves actually trailed at the half before rebounding for an 80-68 victory.

Vermont has had its share of stumbles as well, chief among them an embarrassing 72-65 loss to lowly New Hampshire a month ago. And while Stony Brook should coast to close out the regular season, Vermont still has to contend with a high scoring Albany team on the road.

If Stony Brook is able to win, they would finish no worse than tied for first in America East (and they would own the tie breaker, with a 3-1 record against the next top two teams, ensuring them the top seed for the tournament).

Sunday’s game is going to be very close, and perhaps a preview of the America East championship game. There are no hotter teams in the conference right now, and with so much at stake, Steve Pikiell and John Becker are going to make sure their teams leave nothing on the court.

Keys to victory:

Tommy Brenton on the boards. In their first game, Stony Brook outrebounded Vermont 31-25 and came away with the win. Brenton had 9 of those boards. But unlike most matchups, Tommy might not be the best rebounder on the court tomorrow. League leader Brian Voelkel is averaging 8 rebounds per game, slightly higher than Brenton’s 7.7. If Stony Brook wants the season sweep, Brenton needs to be aggressive in the paint and help the Seawolves maintain the rebounding advantage.

Brian Dougher. As nice as it may be for Stony Brook to have so many players capable of carrying this team on offense, Dougher is going to need to lead the Seawolves if they want to beat Vermont and bring home Stony Brook’s first America East Championship. Not because he’s the team’s best shooter (he is), but because he’s the guy the rest of the floor looks to when they need a big point or solid free throw shooting. Dougher doesn’t need to be the top scorer, but he does need to be on his game, because when he is, he elevates everyone else’s play. How many times have we seen Dougher open the second half with a big three? Those kinds of plays build up not just points, but confidence as well.

Anthony Jackson, Ron Bracey or Leonard Hayes. Right around this point in the season last year is when the rest of America East began learning the name Lenny Hayes. Last season, he came out of nowhere to practically single-handedly lift Stony Brook into the championship game with his hot shooting to close the season. This year, someone off the bench is going to need to fill that role, whether its Hayes again, three point specialist Jackson or JUCO standout Ron Bracey.

Prediction:

Stony Brook’s defense will be tested, but they’ll contain Vermont enough to pull off the 69-62 win.