Stony Brook Looks to Ground Hawks, Set Up for BU Showdown

While I’m certain Bryan Dougher, Tommy Brenton and the rest of the Seawolves will deny it, it’s safe to assume Stony Brook has only one date circled on their calendars this week: January 27. That’s when they’ll welcome archrival Boston University to Pritchard Gymnasium in what I’m officially calling the start of Super Bowl week.

But before those two square off for sole possession of first in America East, Stony Brook had better not look past a surprising Hartford team on Wednesday.

Entering conference play, Hartford was keeping Binghamton company in the ranks of winless teams. But after a loss to Albany, Hartford rattled off a 4-1 record en route to a solid position in the top half of America East standings (ahead, for a time, of even a very good Albany team). What remained unclear was whether the Hawks were for real, or beneficiaries of an easy start to conference play: the four wins came against the bottom four teams in the conference, with a combined record of 18-56.

That theory gained traction on Sunday, with Hartford losing big to BU. Wednesday’s game will likely settle the question over whether Hartford is just another middle-of-the-pack conference also ran, or whether they should be taken seriously.

On paper, Stony Brook is the heavy favorite. They’re undefeated at Pritchard gymnasium this year (and now students are back, ensuring a packed house), have won eight of their last nine, and sport the best defense in the conference and an offense that has been slowly improving from early season woes.

If they want the W, they’ll have to find ways to protect against Hartford’s three-point shooting. The Hawks take more shots from behind the arch than any team in the conference, and when they sink, Hartford can erase a deficit or build a lead quickly. Stony Brook’s defense has to pressure the Hawks and minimize the number of quality looks Wes Cole and Andres Torres get.

More after the jump

On offense, Stony Brook has both impressed and disappointed this season. At Boston, anemic shooting wasted a decent defensive effort. But in games against Albany and UMBC, Stony Brook broke the 80-point barrier in huge wins. Of course, much of Stony Brook’s offensive performance depends on the defense they face. And Hartford has impressed in that regard, holding conference opponents to an average of just 57 points over their last four games, including against high-scoring Boston. If Dougher, Dave Coley and Al Rapier eat their Wheaties, we could see another high-scoring affair for the Seawolves. But if Hartford continues to apply pressure, the ugly side of Stony Brook’s offense could make an unwanted appearance.

X-Factor: The bench. Stony Brook’s offensive strength comes from its depth. Hartford’s success on defense correlates with their ability to contain the big playmaker on the opposing team. With Stony Brook, there’s no such thing. Dougher, Coley, Dallis Joyner, Rapier and Brenton are all more than capable of leading the team offensively. If one or more of them has a tough night, look to Ron Bracey or Marcus Rouse to step up. In games where Stony Brook’s bench gets considerable playing time, Stony Brook dominates.

Prediction: I like our chances in this one. The possible lack of focus with the start of the semester and Boston two days later may dampen the performance, but still: I’m going Stony Brook 64, Hartford 52.