Sauer's Watch List: Preseason Top 10 America East Players

10. Gerardo Suero, Albany: I avoided newcomers on the list, but when the patron saint of the Albany's glory years, Jamar Wilson, speaks, I listen. Jamar, noted on multiple occasions that the moment Suero steps on campus, he'll be the most talented player ever to don the Purple and Gold. The 6'4 slasher promises to be the perfect replacement for the last heralded Albany recruit, Tim Ambrose, and could offer the perfect compliment to the shooting touch of Black, Aronhalt and Deviln (and Will has tentatively tapped him as a starter). Coming in, Suero expect to score and score a lot (a number of 20+ games in Canada confirm that mentality) so my main question is whether Will Brown can get him to buy into the offense (there's definitely drawbacks to throwing a high volume shooter into the mix) and defensive system.

9. Alasdair Fraser, Maine: One of the America East's many foreign imports (Scotland) is among the biggest bodies in the America East and after the sudden rise then graduation of Troy Barnies, there's little stopping Fraser from ascending into elite status among AE big men in his sophomore year. See his breakout profile here.

8. Chris De La Rosa, UMBC: He's an elite point guard, his number stack up nationally, but his team just doesn't win. There's plenty of flashy numbers for CDLR, but this is what counts: 0.6 win shares last season. Guess how many win shares Brett Gifford had during his senior season where he posted 2.2 points and 3.3 rebounds per game? 0.6. If CDLR doesn't make UMBC set a new tone for on defense for one of the worst defensive teams in the entire country, there will be plenty of blame to heap on the shoulders of the senior leader.

7. Leonard Hayes, Stony Brook: I love everything about Hayes, except for the name on the front of his uniform. His story of coming of working himself off the bench and into one of the best players in the league and nearly winning a championship is exactly what makes college basketball special. The 6'4 lefty is the most efficient player in the league (116.4 O Rtg) bolstered by his absolutely lethal shot, which seems unbothered by defensive pressure. If he can add dribble penetration to his repertoire (and really, do you put anything past him?) he might end up the best offensive player in the America East.

6. Gerald McLemore, Maine: McLemore is by far the best role player in the America East... (that's a back-handed compliment in case you didn't catch on). His usage rate of 19.7% poss leaves him at the top end of kenpom's "role player" category, just below "significant contributor." While he did take a team leading 25.3 % of the shots while he's on the floor, he's been a poster child for Luke Winn's theory that basketball players don't change their "type." While many expected McLemore to have a breakout year after a strong sophomore season, he remained the exact same player as junior. A year ago, I would've predicted that McLemore would've been this year's Holland, the player poised to take the next step; instead, Maine is still waiting for someone to take the reins.

Who's Number #1 after the jump

5. Darryl Partin, Boston University: The most volatile player in the top ten. He might walk away with POY or he could also see his streakiness exasperated by defenses focusing on him now that John Holland has graduated. He's a high usage guy, so there's no question he will be among the league's top scorers, but his overall 95.7 O Rtg is a red flag. With Jake O'Brien lost again for the season, the pressure is amped up for Partin to perform on a higher level with greater consistency -- is he up to the task?

4. Brian Voelkel, Vermont: There were 4 seniors at the end of last season that were clear cut 1^st Team AE performers, but there was no consensus on the last spot. As far as I saw, I was the only one arguing for Voelkel to be on the 1^st team -- but it seems most everyone has come around and picked him as a preseason all-conference pick this year.  There's one stat that best captures the returning Rookie of the Year: win shares. He was 4^th in the league in the all-inclusive category (via basketball-reference), behind Fjeld, Holland and Ambrose. He was the best rebounder in the conference (9.6 rpg) and one of the best assist men – as a positionless sort-of-point-forward. I don't expect him to greatly improve his output (and I wonder if a full year with a true PG and without Fjeld inside will diminish his assists), but he could easily average 12/10/5 and be the single most valuable player in the league.

4a. Tommy Brenton, Stony Brook: SBU has to hope that Brenton isn't the mid-major Robbie Hummie, a pre-season all-conference post player who comes with a huge * every season. If the knees hold up, this ranking might even be too low. As an Albany fan, I hate this kid. But what he brings to the table is undeniable – with his motor he could probably come close to leading the division in rebounding on one leg. He's hyper efficient on offense (117 Ortg in 2010) without being a three point shooter and is one of the best defensive rebounders in D1 (19^th in '10). His win shares of 4.6 and 5.3 his freshman and sophomore year we're 4^th and 3^rd in the America East. The biggest question is whether he can help ease some of the facilitator role that fell much too heavily on Bryan Dougher's shoulders until Chris Martin showed up and salvaged the season. 

3. Logan Aronhalt, Albany: I was really down on Logan last year when he hit a prolonged slump to the point of believing that at times Ralph Watts was a better option on the floor because of his superior defense. But given some time and perspective, I've become more convinced of my suspicion that the cause of his streaky shooting was mostly tired, overworked legs (and some toe tendinitis). It was his first full season in two years and Logan was leading the nation in minutes (and points) early on – and then he hit a wall. Logan had a summer to get bounce back into his legs (and produced a YouTube video while doing it) and then made it rain all over America's hat on the summer tour of Canada. Of all America East returners, he has the highest eFG% (47.3), the second highest PPG (14.6), he remains as likely as anyone in the league to drop 30 on a given night and, for my money, is the odds on favorite to lead the league in scoring.

2. Brendan Bald, Vermont: Bald was overshadowed last season by Evan Fjeld's mustache excellence and Voelkel's rookie campaign, but don't expect that to hold this year. He got off to a slow start last season and consequently his overall efficiency left something to be desire (98.1 Ortg) but he's always been a fairly high usage guy (~22 %Poss) and he really hit is stride in conference (before he was derailed by an injury towards the very end of the year). At 6-4 and one of the most on-target three point shooters in the league (41% last season), a breakout season isn't a Green Mountain pipe dream: he's a bona fide POY contender and his defensive reputation (Defensive POY last season) gives him a boost over some similar players to the #2 spot.

1. D.J. Irving, Boston University: It's been a bit of an anomaly that a league the size of America East hasn't been more guard dominant of late. That's about to change – and leading the charge is D.J. Irving. On face, this placing may seem a bit premature – the six foot point guard averaged only 8 points and 3.6 assists in his first year, but there's not a single player player in the America East (or most other leagues for that matter) that can stay in front of Irving. In the most demanding position on the floor, he got stronger as the season went on and he's easily finished with a 100+ offensive rating, nothing to scoff at for a freshman floor general. BU doesn't go to the tournament without him last year; this year, they're going to rely on him to take them back. Speed, his deadliest weapon, gets him to the line at an excellent rate (he took the 11^th most FT in conference play last season) and he shot 84% once he got to the stripe (4^th in the league). Irving is already one of the league's best true point guards (2:1 A/T) and if he can modestly improve his 30% 3PT shooting, he will have more than enough tools to terrorize the league.