What breakout stud will the Vermont Catamounts pull from the cupboard?

This entire breakout series has been based on Luke Winn's phenomenal and now annual "sophomore breakout"posts (and thanks for the s/o on twitter, Luke!). Winn filters through tempo-free stats to find the three part recipe that reveals probable breakout stars: less than 50% of minutes, a significant amount of possesions used (24% +), and at least a 100 offensive rating.

Since this is the America East, we've had to fudge the numbers since no one really fits into that category and throw in some more subjective analysis (for goodness sake, we included 75.7 ORtg Dave Coley for his improvement as a team player). As it turns out, there's only one who fits into those restraints: Pat Bergmann. And we don't have the courage to pick him here.

Pat Bergmann, a 6'9 senior center, had an offensive rating of 107.3, only 8.6% of minutes played (a number so small he didn't make it into Kenpom's analysis -- this is from statsheet now) and averaged 22.2 %Poss (ok, I cheated that number a bit as well). 

The sample size is way too small and wildly skewed: the 6’9" Burlington native did his best Germain Mopa-Njila impression last March when he went off for career highs of 16 points and 8 boards in Vermont’s NIT loss to Cleveland State. Bergmann had never even played more than 12 minutes in a game before.

More on Bergmann and the guy I actually think will be the breakout player after the jump

Yet for all those what very limited minutes over three years, he's produced an offensive rating over 100. There's an enormous hole in the middle with the graduation of Evan Fjeld and with a new coach, who knows, maybe the former high school tennis star (yeah, I'm just pulling straight from his player bio now) will find the footwork in the middle and earn 20+ minutes a game and take the league by storm similar to Troy Barnies did last season.  

The primary roadblock to that Cinderella within a Cinderella story is the player I'm actually marking as this year's breakout player: Luke Apfeld.

Luke Apfeld is the type of player built to succeed in the America East: he brings very good size and physicality to the power forward position at 6'8, 235 lbs, but his motor is what defines him as a player. During his freshman season, he excelled in his limited role (17% Poss) during a modest 15.6 minutes per game. He clocked in with a eFG% that topped even Fjeld (54.6%) and had the best offensive rating on the team (110 ORtg). On top of that, his offensive rating soared to 125 during the regular season, the second best of any returner in the entire league (behind Leonard Hayes). What really boosted him what a stellar offensive rebounding percentage (10.9%) and an above average ability to draw fouls -- and drain the shots when he was there (72%).

The question remains -- how much more can he take on? The departure of Fjeld will make him more frequent target of Brian Voelkel incredible court vision, but he'll also have defenses focused on him; this will put strain on his hitherto limited post move selection. 

The only real drawback of Apfeld’s freshman campaign was his propensity to get into foul trouble. Despite averaging 15 minutes per game, he managed to foul out of multiple games. Don't be surprised to see his name called for the All-Defensive team at the end of the season; in perhaps his best defensive game of the year Apfeld shut down Maine standout Troy Barnies. Even then had trouble staying on the floor and fouled out in just 14 minutes of playing time.

Beyond that, Apfeld's health is always a concern. He had to redshirt his freshman season due to three knee surgeries in under two years. That said, he missed just one game last season and there's no word of any lingering limitations. If Vermont can again buck expectations and claim another league title, it will hinge on a healthy and productive Apfeld -- unless we've got it wrong and Bergmann really is the breakout candidate.